A Guide to the February by-elections
With another month comes yet another set of by-elections for this Parliament. Throughout the month voters will be headed to the polls in Kingswood, Wellingborough and Rochdale. The last set of by-elections in October 2023 culminated in some of the largest swings from Conservative to Labour in by-election history. Let’s take a detailed look at each contest:
Kingswood:
The most uneventful by-election this month is likely to be in Kingswood, on the outskirts of Bristol.
The by-election was triggered by the surprise resignation of Conservative MP Chris Skidmore. Skidmore quit both the government and Parliament in opposition to the watering down of the UK’s net zero commitments. Skidmore’s support for environmental promises is unsurprising, he had also been one of the leading critics against Liz Truss’ plan to reintroduce fracking, however, quitting Parliament altogether is a step few MPs are willing to take.
Kingswood constituency has long been a marginal, voting for the winning party since its inception in 1974, with the narrow exception of 1992. In recent years, the seat has grown more conservative, with Skidmore’s margin of victory rising from 5 points in 2010 to 2019.
However, there is one caveat:
The seat is being scrapped at the next general election as part of the boundary review. Whoever is elected to the seat, will likely serve in Parliament for less than a year.
The election is expected to be a contest between the Conservatives and Labour. Reform UK initially pledged not to put forward a candidate, suggesting the contest was a waste of taxpayer money, however, changed course after suggesting there was significant demand for a candidate.
In order to win the seat, Labour needs an 11% swing. In an ordinary election cycle, this would be unpredictable, if not out of reach for the opposition.
This is not a normal election cycle. Here are the latest by-election swings from Conservative to Labour:
Tamworth: 23.9% (October 2023)
Mid Bedfordshire: 28.6% (October 2023)
Selby and Ainsty: 28.6% (July 2023)
Uxbridge and South Ruislip: 6.7% (July 2023)
All recent by-elections, with the exception of Uxbridge, have resulted in far greater swings from Conserative to Labour than is needed in Kingswood.
It is unlikely Kingswood will repeat the disappointment of Uxbridge for the Labour Party. Not only is the party’s national lead stronger now than in July 2023, the Uxbridge result is generally considered a backlash to Sadiq Khan’s ULEZ policy, as opposed to support for the government. there are unlikely to be any external factors in Kingswood.
Wellingborough:
The background of the Wellingborough by-election could not be worse for the Conservative Party.
An independent Parliamentary panel issued a report into the conduct of Peter Bone MP and reported the following allegations were proven true:
Allegation 1: Mr Bone “verbally belittled, ridiculed, abused and humiliated” the complainant, and this was bullying.
Allegation 2: Mr Bone “repeatedly physically struck and threw things at” the complainant, and this was bullying.
Allegation 3: Mr Bone “imposed an unwanted and humiliating ritual on” the complainant, namely instructing, or physically forcing, the complainant to put his hands in his lap when Mr Bone was unhappy with him or his work; and this was bullying.
Allegation 4.2: Mr Bone “repeatedly pressurised [the complainant] to give him a
massage in the office” and this was bullying, but not sexual misconduct.Allegation 4.3: Mr Bone indecently exposed himself to the complainant on an
overseas trip, initially in the bathroom of the hotel room they were sharing and then in the bedroom. The Commissioner concluded this was sexual misconduct.Allegation 5: ostracised the complainant following the events subject to Allegation 4.3, and this was bullying.
Bone has denied these allegations and insists the inquiry had been biased against him.
Mr Bone was suspended from Parliament for six weeks and a recall petition was triggered in the constituency. As a result of more than 10% of eligible voters signing the petition, a by-election will be held.
But, who have the Conservatives selected as their candidate to succeed Peter Bone?
Helen Harrison.
Girlfriend of Peter Bone.
This follows on from several media reports Bone had threatened to stand as an independent or for Reform if she was not picked.
Not only has the girlfriend of the disgraced MP been selected to stand as a candidate, Peter Bone himself has been spotted on the campaign trail .
There appears to be little goodwill towards Harrison amongst constituents, here are some remarks reported by the Independent:
“The Tories have picked Peter Bone’s girlfriend and that means he’ll be running it, and we don’t want that,” he added.
“I’m not voting for Peter Bone and his little puppet [Ms Harrison],” one ex-Tory voter told The Independent.
The Conservatives face an uphill battle in a seat which ought to be a comfortable victory.
Having won the seat with a majority of over 18,000 in 2019, Wellingborough is among the safest Conservative seats in the country. It would take an 18 point swing for Labour to win the seat.
Not only is the seat overwhelmingly Conservative, it voted heavily for Brexit. In 2016 63% of Wellingborough constituents voted to leave the European Union, in comparison to 57% in Kingswood.
Peter Bone himself also campaigned heavily for Brexit alongside Nigel Farage and appeared frequently alongside the eurosceptic parliamentary group, the ERG.
These factors have led to Reform UK making a serious effort for the seat. The former Brexit Party nominated their deputy leader Ben Habib as the party candidate.
Reports have been mixed as to the chances of Reform success. Some reports have suggested Reform believes it will be their strongest result to date and aim to reflect their national polling average of around 10%.
However, Reform UK merely matching their national polling average would be an underwhelming result. The fundamentals of the seat — heavily Conservative and leave voting point to rife territory for Reform to make gains. In order to prove their polling numbers are real, they must take several points more than 10% of the vote.
This could of course be expectations management. Reporting from the Express on the other hand, seems incredibly bullish for Reform, suggesting the party could push the Conservatives into third place in both Kingswood and Wellingborough.
The by-elections in Wellingborough and Kingswood will take place on Thursday 15th February.
Rochdale:
Undoubtedly the most unpredictable by-election this month will be in Rochdale.
Following the death of Labour MP Tony Lloyd, the Rochdale seat became vacant. The Labour chief whip issued the writ for a by-election unusually fast, in comparison to historical norms.
The by-election has already been plagued by controversy. Before taking a closer look at the election itself, lets have a brief reminder of the scandal surrounding various candidates:
Azhar Ali (Labour): Heavily reported in the press, Azhar Ali has been removed as the Labour candidate for the seat following leaked audio of anti semitic comments. Ali insinuated Jews controlled the media, a historical antisemitic trope and suggested the October 7th attacks were intentionally allowed to happen by Israel. Ali is also a trustee of a mosque known for inviting extremist speakers.
Simon Danczuk (Reform): The Reform candidate for Rochdale is former Labour MP Simon Danczuk. But why is he a former MP? In 2015 Danczuk was suspended from Labour for exchanging sexually explicit messages with a 17 year old girl.
Guy Otten (Green): Otten has been abandoned as the Green Party candidate following discovery of islamphobic posts on X (formerly Twitter). Amidst other posts, Otten suggested the Koran was ‘not fit for the 21st century’ and argued there was a ‘moral bankruptcy’ to Islam.
George Galloway (Workers Party): The former Labour MP has faced countless scandals and controversies.
- Russia: Galloway’s closeness to Russia has come under heavy criticism. Galloway has worked with Russian state media (Russia Today), accused Ukraine of sending ‘fascist battalions’ to invade ‘the Russian people of Eastern Ukraine’ and suggested the US would carry out ‘a false flag WMD incident’ in Ukraine in 2022 on Twitter.
- Amongst the accused in the Oil for Food scandal regarding bribery with Saddam Hussein’s Iraq
- Ran a charity which failed to keep accounts of where the money went
- When running for election in 2015 he accused his opponent, Naz Shah of lying about her forced marriage in Pakistan. As she was 16 and not 15 as previously stated, Galloway insisted he was correct.
- There have been countless accusations of antisemitism.
Note despite being removed as their part candidates, Azhar Ali and Guy Otten will still appear on the ballot with their respective party labels. the removal of their party backing came too late to remove them from the ballot.
Enough about scandal. Onto the constituency itself.
Rochdale is a safe Labour constituency, with the Conservatives falling short significantly in 2019, despite their national landslide.
George Galloway has aimed to turn the contest into a single issue election on the issue of the ongoing conflict in Gaza. This would have turned the by-election into a battle with Labour.
However, the Labour candidate has been removed and there is no replacement. So, what happens now?
The most likely outcome appears to be a Galloway win. As Labour has ceased campaigning and it is unlikely any other party will come close, Galloway appears likely to win by default.
Turnout will likely be incredibly low considering the scandals surrounding the candidates. However, Galloway may still be able to motivate his base. The Gaza conflict is of high salience to Muslim voters, whom Galloway has focused his energy towards. Considering Rochdale is 30% Muslim, it seems highly possible Galloway will see a turnout advantage.
So is a Galloway win inevitable?
Well Labour is still on the ballot. Regular Labour voters who follow the news cycle less may be unaware of Ali’s removal and vote for the party regardless. The campaign literature has not vanished entirely.
Voters have also grown incredibly efficient at tactical voting to remove the Conservatives, perhaps opponents may use it to defeat Galloway?
These options are both unlikely. Whilst an Ali win cannot be ruled out, it is not likely.
The Rochdale by-election will be held on February 29th.
